Deadlock with Iran: U.S. military threats escalate tensions amid rising violence

Iranian-Americans in San Diego march for peace after Iran kills thousands

By Alexander J. Schorr

February 2, 2026 (San Diego) — After thousands of protesters and others were killed in Iran, Iranian-Americans have taken to the streets across the United States. including here in San Diego to take a stand for freedom.

Tensions have been rising between Iran and the U.S. since the June 22, 2025 military offensive, Operation Midnight Hammer. That attack, which targeted three of Iran’s critical nuclear facilities, follows the US reinforced support of Israel's offensive against Tehran and its regional proxies. The Trump administration has also sent a Naval “armada” to Iran, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, further escalating fears of potential military confrontation.

In January of 2025, President Trump intensified his threats against Iran with the threat of a US military presence which he claims will be “far worse” than the June 2025 strikes. Trump’s rhetoric has created two ultimatums: one being that Iran dismantle its nuclear program and stop the “lethal repression" of domestic protestors. Senior Iranian leaders have said that they are open to negotiations with Washington, but only once Trump stops threatening to attack the country.

The Known Deaths

Iran’s bloody crackdown on nationwide protests has killed at least 6,159 people.

Out of the 6,159 victims, 5,804 are protestors, 214 security officers, 92 children, and 49 civilians involved with the protests. Additionally, HRANA has also stated that 42,200 people have been arrested so far by Tehran. The official death count provided by Iran stands at 3,117, which is lower than the number of victims named by HRANA. The Islamic Republic has said that those killed were civilians and security forces, with the rest being "terrorists."

The most intense killing occurred over just two days, on January 8 and 9, where thousands were reportedly shot by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia. Amid the protests, KRANA documented at least 52 executions for prior non-political convictions between January 5 and 14, which was carried out under the cover of the internet blackout.

According to The Guardian, the number of dead that have been witnessed at hospices estimate that the number could exceed 30,000, which would far surpass official state figures. This estimate is based on the analysis by reporters that the “officially registered deaths related to the crackdown likely represent less than 10% of the real number of fatalities."

Conflicting Numbers

It is important to preface that at this time, the death toll of Iranians due to a crackdown on civilians and protestors is likely higher than what is reported.

The number of protestor deaths reported in Iran as of January vary significantly due to statements by official government statements and independent human rights monitors, with a nationwide internet blackout on January 8. The estimates of fatalities range from approximately 2,100 to over 30,000.

Iranian state TV reported an official count of 3,117 deaths; this figure includes 2,427 people identified as "civilians and security forces” killed by what the authorities have termed “terrorists.” An unnamed official previously cited a figure of 5,000— including 500 security personnel.

A US-based group called Human Rights Activists New Agency (HRANA) has verified 4,560 deaths as of late January, with an additional 9,000 deaths currently under review. Additionally, a Norway-based group known as the Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) has confirmed at least 3,428 deaths— mostly individuals under the age of 30, and at least 15 children.

Additionally:

The Sunday Times reported that a network of Iranian doctors estimated at least 16,500 to 18,000 deaths.

Iran International reported at least 12,000 deaths, citing sources close to the Supreme National Security Council.

CBS News cited activist groups and sources in Washington estimating the toll could be between 12,000 and 20,000.

Activist groups have reported that more than 26,500 people have been arrested during the crackdown in Iran. The protests began on December 28, 2025, which were initially sparked by economic distress, and then rapidly escalated into a nationwide movement against the nation’s theocratic government.

U.S. Response

A U.S. aircraft carrier strike group, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln, arrived in the Persian Gulf in late January 2026 to provide visible military deterrent and the capability for immediate strikes if so ordered. The White House has maintained that military options remain “on the table,” with the President stating that the United States is “locked and loaded” to rescue protestors if violence continues. Some U.S. personnel were advised to leave military bases in the regions, such as the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, as a precaution against potential Iranian retaliation. Additionally, there is a travel advisory in place, with the US State Department urging all U.S. citizens to leave Iran immediately, citing a high risk of arrest and detention.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has recently imposed new sanctions on Iranian officials and entities linked to the brutal crackdown, with human rights groups estimating over 6,100 people have been killed. President Trump has also threatened to impose a 25% tariff on any country that continues to do business with Iran, aiming to further isolate the regime economically.

While the Trump administration has taken a hardline stance, U.S. polling indicates that roughly 70% of Americans oppose direct military involvement in Iran. This response follows a period of increased tension, including reported US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June of 2025.

Some Context about the Protests

Soaring inflation, state mismanagement of essential services, and worsening living conditions have been key aspects of the Iranian protestors. Iran’s currency, the rial, fell to a record low of 1.5 million to $1. The protests sparked on December 28, 2025, after the Iranian rial hit a record low, plunging more than 40% in value. Soaring inflation caused the prices of basic goods like meat, dairy, and cooking oil to spike dramatically, as much as 10 times in a year.

The protestors started with shopkeepers in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar going on strike and closing shops. Simple protests have turned into mass nationwide street demonstrations calling for an end to the Islamic Republic system, demanding fundamental change and transition to a new system of government.

In 2025, people in Iran faced severe and prolonged water shortages and electricity cuts, resulting in the closures of schools and businesses. The environmental degradation facing the people of Iran is also a big problem:

• The loss of lakes, rivers and wetlands
• Groundwater depletion
• Water pollution from discharge of wastewater into urban water sources and even deforestation
• Land subsistence
• Declining water reserves and soil health
• Air pollution, partly from the industrial use of substandard fuels, which contributed to thousands of deaths in 2025.

Iranian authorities continue to under-invest in regions home to ethnic minorities, such as the Kurds and Baluchis, creating more potential for poverty and marginalization. What began as economic protests quickly morphed into calls for the end of the Islamic Republic, with slogans like “Death to the Dictator” targeting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Continued anger stems from years of civil rights abuses, including the mandatory hijab laws that sparked the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests following the death of Mahsa Amini.

Two Iranian-backed militias in the Mideast have signaled their willingness to launch new attacks, and are very likely trying to back Iran after Trump’s threat of US military action over the killing of nonviolent protestors, as well as Tehran launching mass executions in the wake of the demonstrations.

Though Iran has repeatedly threatened to drag the entire Mideast into war, its air defense and military are still reeling after the June war launched by Israel against the country. Pressure on its economy may spark new unrest as everyday goods slowly go out of reach of its people.

Locally

San Diego is home to an Iranian-American community of over 12,000. Defined by community organizing, demonstrations, and cultural preservation, they utilize local gatherings to advocate for change. These organizations include the House of Iran, the Persian Cultural Center, and AIAP.

Thousands have rallied in San Diego, especially at the corner of Genese and Balboa Park in Clairemont to show support for protestors in Iran demanding freedom and dignity, including a demonstration of roughly 2,000 people.

El Cajon is a major hub for Middle Eastern immigrants and refugees, and while the community is predominantly Chaldean, Iraqi, Syrian, and Afghani, it includes Iranian representation as well, with some specialized faith-based support services like the Shadow Mountain Community Church - Iranian Congregation as well as a litany of other community groups serving Iranian refugees. The city of El Cajon

East County Magazine reached out to a local with family in Iran to provide some personal context for the violence in Iran.

The person, who has requested anonymity, stated that the state-sponsored violence against civilians and protestors has been “the worst under the regime since the 1980s, because they are teetering at the edge of non-existence.” The source highlighted that the Iranian Regime has been “weakened by poor economics and tariffs. My people are the revolutionary body whom you can only oppress for so long. There is— and has been— so much fervor, that the government felt that there was no other way but to get brutal. The ultimate goal is to free ourselves while advocating for human dignity, not capitalist imperialism.”

The source also addressed the dangers and risks ahead of President Trump looking to implement military action against the government of Iran, stating, “It's ridiculous. The U.S. and the West need to mind its own business; we are in this situation because the U.S. ushered in an oppressive monarchy. There has never been a place where American capitalist imperialism has touched that hasn’t turned out well. There  are many Iranians who support Trump out of desperation to tear down the pain that has constructed Iran. Presently, America's threats to invade and do another regime-change will come to paint the  regime as victims in some way, which is horrendous and wrong.”

The concerned resident concluded,  “I have family in Iran who are victims. I have a family member who has been shot who can’t go to the hospital— they're looking for them, so they have to hide,” adding that it is hard to live in such a country “and then have your place of birth being destroyed.”