CLIMATE CHANGE TO RAISE WILDFIRE RISK SIX-FOLD, STUDY PREDICTS

East County News Service

Photo: Lake Morena fire, by Claudia Millerbragg

November 9, 2015 (San Diego’s East County) – A new study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society  predicts that the number of extreme fire risk days in California will rise from 10 a year to 60 by the year 2100—a six-fold increase.  The study was conducted by  the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Utah State University scientists.

The scientists found that climate change is already underway and responsible for extreme fire conditions starting in the 1990s, which go beyond normal fluctuations in climate conditions. But there are things that can be done. Besides reducing greenhouse emissions to potentially slow or reverse climate change, investing in more brush clearing and firefighting capacity is critical.

The cost of clearing brush can be costly—but battling big fires could be 30 times higher than the cost of prevention.  The Environmental Defense Fund last year estimated that the cost of fighting wildfires can be expected to increase by almost 50 percent by 2050 , or about $185 billion a year in the United States.

Here in San Diego, fire season in the past has run from July through around November, after which Cal Fire would shut down over half of its stations in our county.  But in recent years, most of those stations have stayed open year-round due to increased wildfire risk from years of drought conditions.  

Cal Fire has also been conducted an unprecedented number of controlled burns to create fire breaks and prevent larger fires.

But some environmentalists, notably the Chaparral Institute, have contended that burning chaparral too frequently can result in grasses, which are even more flammable, taking over.  Taxpayers, meanwhile, have balked at fire taxes aimed at funding increased fire prevention and firefighting services. 

Even the predicted El Nino could be a double-edged sword, bringing heavy rains that could help alleviate the drought—but heavy rains also lead to increased vegetation growth in fire-prone areas—vegetation that becomes a heavy fuel load once the dry summer months arrive, accelerating the risk of more catastrophic wildfire.