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By G. A. McNeeley Map via Miracosta College
April 16, 2026 (Julian) -- While the 5.2 earthquake centered in Julian Monday was minor, the Elsinore Fault that produced it is capable of an 7.5 magnitude earthquake.
Another thing to consider is that each point on the Richter scale is exponential, which means it’s 10 times stronger than the last point.
For example, a 6.2 magnitude earthquake is 10 times stronger than a 5.2 magnitude earthquake.
ECM Interviewed The Statewide California Earthquake Center East County Magazine asked Mark Benthien, Associate Director of Public Education and Preparedness at the Statewide California Earthquake Center, about the earthquake in Julian that happened on the Elsinore Fault.
Benthien told us that this 5.2 magnitude earthquake “was considered a minor earthquake.”
When asked how much more damaging an earthquake the Elsinore Fault is capable of, Benthien said that “if the entire fault were to rupture, it could be over a magnitude 7 earthquake.”
When asked when a major earthquake could happen on the Elsinore Fault, Benthien said that he has “no idea when it might happen,” and that “it could happen tomorrow” or “it could happen not for 100 years.”
When referring to the earthquake that happened on Monday, April 14, Benthien said that something like that can happen “before there’s a large earthquake,” but also that nothing could happen “for a long time.”
Benthien added, “The average time between major ruptures” (6.5 to 7.5, for example) is 250 years.
“We think the last major rupture along the fault was, like, in the 1700s,” Benthien continued. “So we’re over that time period.”
“In fact, the last earthquake along the fault that was above a 5.0, was a 5.2, and it was in 1910, and that was up closer to the Temecula area,” Benthien added. “It might happen soon, and the key thing is for everyone to be prepared,” Benthien continued.
When asked about potential damage to the old earthen dam at El Capitan Reservoir, Benthien said, “There’s always possibilities of that. It likely would take a much larger earthquake.” He added, “We’ve had a lot of big earthquakes in California history. We haven’t had a lot of major dam failures.”
The El Capitan dam is just a few miles from the epicenter, and has been rated dangerous by the state of California. It is kept at low capacity (currently at 24%), due to dire threat to those downstream if it were to break.
When asked if there was anything else our readers might need to know, Benthien said, “You can go to earthquakecountry.org,” and “look for the seven steps to earthquake safety,” which will be linked below:
The Elsinore Fault runs from the Mexican border, through San Diego’s East County, to the northern end of the Santa Ana mountains near Los Angeles.
If you want to learn more about the Elsinore Fault Line, you can click here: https://gotbooks.miracosta.edu/fieldtrips/Elsinore_Fault/index.html
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