Democratic primary

HOW TO ANALYZE TONIGHT'S RESULTS IN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY

By Miriam Raftery

March 3, 2020 (San Diego's East County) -- ECM will be tweeting live results on the presidential campaign and all local races in East County and later posting full articles on our news site. You can follow us at EastCountyMag on Twitter. 

As media outlets declare "winners" in the Democratic primary elections held this Super Tuesday, it's important to understand these key facts: 

  • Primary races are not winner-takes-all. So a second, third or fourth place candidate might still get significant delegates, especially in large states like Texas and California.
  • However, only candidates with 15% or more of the vote will get any delegates in a given Congressional district.  So even a high placement may not count, if the candidate has below 15%.
  • Fourteen states vote this Super Tuesday, awarding about a third of all the Democratic delegates.
  • The first four states to vote before today awarded a total of  just 155 delegates.
  • California has 415 delegates and Texas has 225, so if a candidate wins big there, they could overtake a candidate with many wins in smaller states. 
  • Super Tuesday states voting today are:  Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Vermont, and American Samoa
  • A candidate needs 1,991 pledged delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot at the national Democratic convention.  If no candidate has that many (i.e., over 50% of all delegates) then it becomes a contested convention and goes to a second ballot, at which "superdelegates" -- establishment Democrats including many elected officials, will also cast ballots. This could result in someone other than the candidate with the most delegates being chosen as the nominee.
  • Votes cast for candidates who later suspended their campaigns will mean their delegates will go to the convention but can vote for other candidates.
  • If a candidate dropped out, rather than suspend their candidacy, their delegates are split proportionately among the winners in each state where they received 15% or more.
  • Only four remaining Democratic candidates have drawn over 15% or appear likely to do so in order to remain potentially viable: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, billionaire Michael Bloomberg.
  • All others have either dropped out of the race, suspended their candidacy, or are polling in low single digits.

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